麻豆社事件

California Gov. Gavin Newsom emerged from a recall election on Sept. 14, 2021, , having secured a . But while most eyes were on the result itself, another important shift was playing out: California鈥檚 growing role in national Democratic politics.

President Joe Biden,  ended, alluded to this shift, telling a friendly crowd: 鈥淭his is not hyperbole: The eyes of the nation are on California. 鈥� The decision you鈥檙e about to make isn鈥檛 just going to have a huge impact on California. It鈥檚 going to reverberate around the nation. And quite frankly, it鈥檚 not a joke, around the world.鈥�

I鈥檓 not sure how great the global impact will be. But as a longtime , I am struck by the state鈥檚 rising importance in national Democratic politics. It鈥檚 a big change.

For many years, California was of secondary importance in the eyes of the party, well behind the  in the Midwest whose voting proclivities were diced and spliced by campaign strategists. But now, California is being seen as a political barometer for the party in its own right, not just an ATM for visiting national candidates seeking to raise campaign funds.

Once, But no Longer a Seedbed for Republicans

 that Democrats are discovering something that worked for Republicans from the 1960s all the way until the 2000s: They can make California a place where political movements and ideas start and, if successful, spread across the country.

Hard as it may be to believe, given the  of California鈥檚 Republicans today, the state, and particularly the Greater Los Angeles region, were fundamental to the GOP consolidating national power.

Ballot initiatives such as , which overturned a fair housing law, , which set off the national tax revolt, and , which in 1994 reframed the GOP as anti-immigrant, became symbols of the White backlash that deeply influenced modern Republican politics. The core support for these measures came from Southern California Republicans.

The region was a seedbed for Republican governors, senators, and even presidents. , a House member and then senator, and , a two-term governor, won four presidential terms between them. And , previously a U.S. senator, and  each won the same number of terms as governor.

A Path for Biden

Demographic change in California, including  and  prompted a drastic decline in Republican fortunes in the state, and a .

By the time Arnold Schwarzenegger  in the 2003 recall and was re-elected in 2006, the movie star politician was an anomaly鈥攖he last of the Republican breed. No other Republican has won statewide office since.

With growing majorities in the electorate and in the legislature and a near-monopoly of statewide elected offices, California鈥檚 Democratic leaders could get out ahead of the national party on issues ranging from immigration to climate change to health care.

California became a powerful ally of the Obama administration, going , and demonstrating how the . During the Trump years, the state often led the resistance on issues  and 鈥攑rompting Donald Trump to declare in 2020 that California was 鈥�.鈥�

In the Biden presidency, Newsom showed the way with aggressive steps against COVID-19 that cost him politically in the short term but are  and , outcomes now鈥攁 path that the cautious Biden is now treading with his directives on vaccinations.

SoCal, So Important

What is even more remarkable is the elevation of Southern California as a state and national player. California Democrats鈥� presence in national politics has, to date, been through the influence of highly organized and liberal Northern California.

The North showed up once again in the recall,  for Newsom. But the big change is in Southern California, which is developing . It was not just Los Angeles County that spurned the recall; it also failed in the newly   to the east and south of the LA metropolis.

Far from seeing Los Angeles as some kind of political backwater, national political figures are looking to take their talents where the action is.

This region鈥檚 politics have drawn interest from national Democrats that was rarely shown in the past. In a Los Angeles City Council election just last year, the two candidates鈥攐ne from the left wing of the Democratic party and the other from the center-left, boasted opposing  . It was as if these big time Democrats were replaying their 2016 presidential primary battle in LA Council District #4.

Local politicians are clearly getting the attention of national leaders who see value in stepping into local and state politics. Far from seeing Los Angeles as some kind of political backwater, national political figures are looking to take their talents where the action is.

Recently, the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race has been jolted by indications that a national political figure, Democratic U.S. Rep. Karen Bass, seems  the competitive campaign.

Mayor Eric Garcetti, a Democrat , would be the first LA mayor to move up to the national scene, ending a long run of LA mayors who found their office to be a political dead end. Garcetti鈥檚 appointment, should it win confirmation in the Senate, is another nod to this region鈥檚 political importance, similar to Newsom鈥檚 鈥攁 former LA City Council member and state senator鈥攖o fill Kamala Harris鈥檚 U.S. Senate seat.

Swinging Away from Swing Voters

The lessons of the California recall election could become crucial as the party attempts to  for what could be extremely challenging 2022 midterm elections.

As more Democrats began to see the limitations of a strategy based on 鈥攁nd, conversely, the value of mobilizing already persuaded party voters even in closely divided states鈥擟alifornia鈥檚 growing Democratic majorities became more relevant to them. By helping Newsom to his big win, Biden and other national Democrats gained as much as they gave, getting a firsthand look at what a Democratic mobilization strategy can accomplish even in a short campaign.

While few competitive states have such a large Democratic majority, close races may still be decided by mobilization as much as persuasion, and by shining a bright light on the stark choice between the parties as they are constituted today.

This article was originally published by , and is reprinted here under a Creative Commons license.